Last Man Standing tips: which team to pick?
On SURVIVOR, a draw is as bad as a defeat. League tables, which reward draws, are therefore a poor guide to which teams are safe. Here are the numbers that actually matter, league by league, from last season.
The only stat that matters: win rate
A team that rarely loses but draws a lot climbs the table. In Last Man Standing it knocks you out just as surely as a defeat. The right measure isn't points or an unbeaten run, it's the share of matches won.
Bournemouth drew 46% of their matches in 2025-26: a tough side to beat, and a very risky pick.
Five rules to last longer
Across Europe's top five leagues in 2025-26, the home side won 44% of matches and the away side 31%. That's only the starting point:
- A favourite at home beats a favourite away
- Between two equally strong teams, home advantage tips it. But its weight varies a lot from one league to another, and some teams win more often away than at home: check the home and away columns before you pick.
- Don't save all your big teams for later
- Each team can only be used once, so the temptation is to hold back the best. But a league among friends rarely goes the distance: a favourite saved for too long sometimes never gets used. Play it when its match is the safest of the gameweek.
- Beware the weekend after Europe
- A team that played on Tuesday or Wednesday often rotates the following weekend, especially ahead of a decisive second leg. A tired favourite against a rested side is a draw waiting to happen.
- Late in the season, follow the stakes
- In spring, a team fighting relegation or chasing a European place fights harder than one whose season is already settled. Motivation counts for more than quality on paper.
- Pick before the deadline, not at the last minute
- Picks close one hour before the first match of the gameweek. A match brought forward or postponed outside the main block can't be picked: check the fixtures early in the week.
The five leagues compared (2025-26)
Share of draws, home wins and away wins across every match of the season. The higher the draw rate, the riskier every pick.
| Competition | Draws | Home wins | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 27.4% | 42.7% | 29.8% |
| La Liga | 24.1% | 49.1% | 26.8% |
| Serie A | 26.3% | 38.7% | 35.0% |
| Bundesliga | 24.5% | 43.8% | 31.7% |
| Ligue 1 | 24.3% | 46.2% | 29.5% |
| Champions League (league phase) | 17.4% | 49.3% | 33.3% |
The gaps look small, but over ten gameweeks they add up: Last Man Standing on the Premier League and on La Liga are not the same game.
Premier League: the safest teams
The Premier League is the draw capital of the big five: 27.4% of matches ended level last season, the highest rate of the five, which makes it the trickiest league for Last Man Standing. Arsenal were the safest pick (26 wins from 38), ahead of Manchester City (23 from 37). Reputation isn't enough: Liverpool won only 17 matches, and Tottenham just 3 at home. Bournemouth, with 17 draws, are the textbook case of a side that's hard to beat but dangerous to back.
| # | Team | Wins | Draws | Home wins | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 68% | 18% | 79% | 58% |
| 2 | Man City | 62% | 24% | 74% | 50% |
| 3 | Man United | 53% | 29% | 68% | 37% |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 47% | 24% | 63% | 32% |
| 5 | Liverpool | 45% | 24% | 53% | 37% |
| 6 | Fulham | 39% | 18% | 58% | 21% |
| 7 | Brentford | 37% | 29% | 42% | 32% |
| 8 | Brighton Hove | 37% | 29% | 47% | 26% |
| 9 | Chelsea | 37% | 26% | 37% | 37% |
| 10 | Newcastle | 37% | 18% | 53% | 21% |
| 11 | Sunderland | 37% | 32% | 47% | 26% |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 35% | 46% | 39% | 32% |
| 13 | Everton | 34% | 26% | 32% | 37% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 29% | 32% | 21% | 37% |
| 15 | Leeds United | 29% | 37% | 47% | 11% |
| 16 | Nottingham | 29% | 29% | 21% | 37% |
| 17 | Tottenham | 26% | 29% | 16% | 37% |
| Coventry City | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Hull City | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Ipswich Town | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
La Liga: the safest teams
La Liga has the strongest home advantage of the big five — the home side won 49.1% of matches — and the lowest draw rate (24.1%). Barcelona won all 19 of their home games, and 31 of 38 overall. Real Madrid (26 wins from 37) and Villarreal (22 from 38) complete the podium. On the road, be careful: Elche won just once away from home, Osasuna twice.
| # | Team | Wins | Draws | Home wins | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 82% | 3% | 100% | 63% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 70% | 14% | 83% | 58% |
| 3 | Villarreal | 58% | 16% | 79% | 37% |
| 4 | Atleti | 55% | 16% | 79% | 32% |
| 5 | Getafe | 39% | 16% | 42% | 37% |
| 6 | Real Betis | 39% | 39% | 53% | 26% |
| 7 | Celta | 37% | 32% | 32% | 42% |
| 8 | Valencia | 35% | 24% | 44% | 26% |
| 9 | Athletic | 34% | 16% | 47% | 21% |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 32% | 35% | 37% | 28% |
| 11 | Espanyol | 32% | 26% | 37% | 26% |
| 12 | Sevilla FC | 32% | 18% | 37% | 26% |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 30% | 32% | 42% | 17% |
| 14 | Alavés | 29% | 26% | 37% | 21% |
| 15 | Levante | 29% | 24% | 37% | 21% |
| 16 | Osasuna | 29% | 24% | 47% | 11% |
| 17 | Elche | 26% | 34% | 47% | 5% |
| Deportivo | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Málaga | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Santander | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
Serie A: the safest teams
Serie A is where home advantage counts least: home sides won 38.7% of matches and away sides 35.0%, the narrowest gap of the five leagues. Backing a favourite away is a reasonable call here. Inter dominated (27 wins from 38, 13 of them away), ahead of Napoli and Roma (23 each). Milan and Bologna actually won more often away than at home. The traps: Fiorentina and Atalanta, who drew 15 and 14 times.
| # | Team | Wins | Draws | Home wins | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 71% | 16% | 74% | 68% |
| 2 | Napoli | 61% | 18% | 68% | 53% |
| 3 | Roma | 61% | 11% | 68% | 53% |
| 4 | Milan | 53% | 26% | 47% | 58% |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 50% | 32% | 47% | 53% |
| 6 | Juventus | 50% | 32% | 53% | 47% |
| 7 | Bologna | 42% | 21% | 32% | 53% |
| 8 | Atalanta | 39% | 37% | 47% | 32% |
| 9 | Lazio | 37% | 32% | 42% | 32% |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 37% | 18% | 47% | 26% |
| 11 | Udinese | 37% | 21% | 32% | 42% |
| 12 | Torino | 32% | 24% | 42% | 21% |
| 13 | Cagliari | 29% | 26% | 37% | 21% |
| 14 | Parma | 29% | 34% | 26% | 32% |
| 15 | Genoa | 26% | 29% | 32% | 21% |
| 16 | Lecce | 26% | 21% | 26% | 26% |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 24% | 39% | 21% | 26% |
| Frosinone | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Monza | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Venezia FC | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
Bundesliga: the safest teams
In the Bundesliga, Bayern crushed everyone: 28 wins from 34, as many away as at home, and a single defeat. That makes them the safest pick in Europe's top five leagues — one to keep for the gameweek when everything else looks risky. Behind them, Dortmund (22 wins) and Leipzig (20) are solid; Stuttgart and Hoffenheim win one game in two. Across the league, 24.5% of matches were drawn and the home side won 43.8% of the time.
| # | Team | Wins | Draws | Home wins | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 82% | 15% | 82% | 82% |
| 2 | Dortmund | 65% | 21% | 76% | 53% |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 59% | 15% | 71% | 47% |
| 4 | Hoffenheim | 53% | 21% | 59% | 47% |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 53% | 24% | 71% | 35% |
| 6 | Leverkusen | 50% | 24% | 53% | 47% |
| 7 | Freiburg | 38% | 24% | 53% | 24% |
| 8 | Augsburg | 35% | 21% | 41% | 29% |
| 9 | Frankfurt | 32% | 32% | 41% | 24% |
| 10 | Mainz | 29% | 29% | 24% | 35% |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 29% | 26% | 29% | 29% |
| 12 | HSV | 26% | 32% | 35% | 18% |
| 13 | M'gladbach | 26% | 32% | 35% | 18% |
| 14 | Bremen | 24% | 24% | 29% | 18% |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 21% | 32% | 29% | 12% |
| Elversberg | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| SC Paderborn | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Schalke | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
Ligue 1: the safest teams
In Ligue 1, 24.3% of matches ended in a draw last season and the home side won 46.2% of the time. Two clubs stand out: PSG, who won 24 of their 34 games including 11 away, and Lens, almost unbeatable at home with 14 wins from 17. Behind them, Lille, Marseille and Lyon win about one game in two; Lille even won more often away (10) than at home (8). One to avoid: Le Havre, who drew 14 of their 34 matches.
| # | Team | Wins | Draws | Home wins | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 71% | 12% | 76% | 65% |
| 2 | RC Lens | 65% | 12% | 82% | 47% |
| 3 | Lille | 53% | 21% | 47% | 59% |
| 4 | Marseille | 53% | 15% | 65% | 41% |
| 5 | Olympique Lyon | 53% | 18% | 71% | 35% |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 50% | 24% | 59% | 41% |
| 7 | Monaco | 47% | 18% | 59% | 35% |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 44% | 24% | 53% | 35% |
| 9 | Toulouse | 36% | 24% | 35% | 38% |
| 10 | Lorient | 32% | 35% | 47% | 18% |
| 11 | Paris FC | 32% | 32% | 41% | 24% |
| 12 | Brest | 29% | 26% | 41% | 18% |
| 13 | Angers SCO | 26% | 26% | 35% | 18% |
| 14 | Auxerre | 24% | 29% | 35% | 12% |
| 15 | Le Havre | 21% | 41% | 29% | 12% |
| 16 | Nice | 21% | 32% | 24% | 18% |
| Le Mans | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
| Troyes | Promoted: no top-flight season last year | ||||
Champions League: a different game
In the league phase, the Champions League produced fewer draws than the domestic leagues last season (17.4% over 144 matches), and the home side won 49.3% of the time. The gap between Europe's giants and the smaller sides is wider than in a domestic league.
The rules change too: every first and second leg is a gameweek, picks are judged on that night's match, and your pool of teams resets once every team playing in a gameweek has been used. Cup rules →
Stats: every league match of the 2025-26 season (league phase only for the Champions League), from official results. Teams listed are those playing in 2026-27; promoted sides have no top-flight figures from last season.
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